When it comes to the surplus of the build-up to the Super Bowl, prop efforts to put your dollars after tax are near the top of the list. What I usually find most valuable is entering a certain aspect of the game (or two) and spending most of your time breaking it down and finding the edges there.
In this piece, I took a deep dive into the kicking game and think I have found some worth considering.
All odds with permission of Draftkings Sportsbook
Either team that misses an extra point attempt – Yes (+195) / No (-250)
This will certainly be a prop that the average player will be afraid of given the steep price, but hear me out.
Each of these kickers has an XP miss this record season and is admittedly ranked close to the bottom from an XP point of view during the regular season 2020. However, both kickers missed their only XP in the Wild Card game, and as the pressure increased, their accuracy increased in the middle.
For the Chiefs, Harrison Butker was a perfect 5-5 on XP and FG in last year’s big game, and together 10-10 in AFC Championship games in the last two seasons.
For the Buccaneers, Ryan Succop will kick on his home turf, whose conditions he has been fantastic at. During this regular season, he only missed one XP in the friendly boundaries at Raymond James Stadium.
Pick: NO -250
Total points – Over 6.5 (+115) / Below 6.5 (-143)
The regular season’s combined average for the number of points for Tommy Townsend and Bradley Pinion comes in at just over 6.6, which makes this # seem right on the nose.
The median, which throws out the lowest and highest points, comes in at 3.5, well below the sum laid up. Given that both head coaches have shown a tendency for risk tolerance to get where they are, I like that this number sails well below the 6.5 that have been published.
Pick: Below 6.5 (-143)
Team to get the most points – Buccaneers (-143) / Chiefs (+115)
In Chiefs’ two post-season games so far, Townsend has beaten only once. At the back, Buccaneer’s Pinion has averaged three points in the match, despite a Buccaneers offense that has been successful in all three games.
These stats combined with the manager’s ability to move the ball and risk tolerance to go on the fourth, and I love the value the Bucs currently provide here.
Pick: Buccaneers -143
Whether you are a beginner in sports betting or a gaming professional, our How to bet and Sports betting strategy and advice pages are for you. You can get started with our section 101 – inclusive How to choose a sports book – or go for more advanced strategy – like Which sports are most profitable to bet on? – to learn more.